PFW draft analyst Nolan Nawrocki held a conference call with the media on Wednesday, answering questions about the upcoming NFL draft. Here is an excerpt of some of Nolan's responses.
Q: Looking at the end of the first round, do you see teams picking in the second round trying to trade back into the first round for quarterbacks, and if so, which quarterbacks do you see being taken at that point?
Nawrocki: I definitely think there's going to be interest late in the first round. We've seen it in the past few years with guys like Jason Campbell and J.P. Losman. Teams that have pressing needs try to come up, especially if they cannot address the position sooner in the draft. I really think there are going to be two quarterbacks that have a chance in the top five. I think (Blaine) Gabbert will come off in the top five and (Cam) Newton in the top 15. After that, I think there are a couple guys who could get considerably overdrafted. (Ricky) Stanzi is a guy from Iowa that I think has a lot of talent, he's just got to find the confidence. As the draft keeps growing closer, I could see him potentially having more interest. Another guy is Andy Dalton from TCU. I think he's more of a career backup in my own opinion. But there are a lot of teams that have taken a greater interest in him. It wouldn't shock me to see him go somewhere in that second round. I don't know that anybody else will get into the back of the first. The other guys are Colin Kaepernick of Nevada and Christian Ponder (of Florida State). To me, Ponder is truly a fourth-round talent. There are questions about his elbow injury. I see him as more of an ideal backup who could come in and start for you in situations where you might need him, but you're never going to be pleased if he's the guy. This class has a lot of holes and question marks. I think Stanzi is a guy that teams will be excited about developing. He's more of a second- to third-round value. To answer your question, even though there's so much need, I think there's going to be greater value late in the first than just the quarterback position.
Q: Can you tell me your opinion on Von Miller? What kind of pass rusher do you expect him to be? Is he a guy that's shown he has more than one move? Are there current players you would compare him to.
Nawrocki: Going back in history, the comparison that some scouts have made has been to Derrick Thomas. I think that's a little bit lofty at this point in his career, just knowing how successful Derrick was. Another comparison has been to John Abraham in Atlanta. When you look at (Miller's) game, I think he's a little bit undersized for the defensive end position. He projects best to the outside linebacker position that he has played. He has a rare burst off the edge, the best first step out of any pass rusher in this draft. Very explosive, you could see that at the Combine, at his pro days and his workouts. He was very quick-twitched; he looked like a rabbit out there moving back and forth. Just so sudden and explosive. He's definitely got to make some improvement as a pass rusher and develop more moves. He's a guy that's going to be able to come in right away, plug in and I think he'll make a quick impact. The way he can come off the ball so low to the ground, bend, trim the corner and leverage the edge, I think it's very rare. He was the top-graded player in the draft by PFW standards this year — we gave him an 8.5. He's a guy that I think you could feel very comfortable just knowing what you're getting off the field — very smart, very sound, very well-rounded all around. You could feel good about that pick. Generally that position doesn't come off quite as early, the rush linebacker position, this year I'd be surprised if he falls out of the top five.
Q: Could you give quick evaluations on the top two receivers and do you still think A.J. Green is the top receiver in this draft?
Nawrocki: I do. I think he's the most difficult to cover. He brings the most — he can go vertical, he can really do anything you want, he can separate and he can work underneath. There are very few shortcomings in his game. The only real concern is how he fared on the Wonderlic test. He scored a 10, which was the lowest score of any receiver at the Combine. I think when it comes down to it, you've got to look at offensive coordinators designing packages that are suitable for a receiver to adjust to as rookies. I think a lot of offensive coordinators tend to make the game too complex. If you've got four reads to make in a route, I think they've need to trim it down to two if he's not getting it right away, and just allow him to thrive. If he's not able to get it right away it's on the coaches, it's not on him. He's just got far too much talent. There haven't been many like him to come out. You've got to look at Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. I think he's definitely in that class and I think he can make that kind of impact, and within a couple years he'll be one of the top five or seven receivers in the game. Julio (Jones) is a little bit different — he's a little more physical, he's a bigger and stronger, he's a little more physical after the catch and as a blocker. He's more suited for a West Coast offense. The big concern you've got to worry about is whether he can stay healthy because he plays so physical and violently. He's been injured a lot throughout his career — hand injuries and foot injuries. I think he just sells himself out so much on the field, you're always going to have to worry about taming him down a little bit, just like Anquan Boldin in Baltimore now. (Jones) plays at such a pace that you've got to worry about the injuries. Both of them are phenomenal talents, top-10 receivers and I think they'll be excellent pros.
Q: How much does the lockout environment change how teams may evaluate or approach this draft, especially in the hazy top 10 where the teams need immediate impact?
Nawrocki: It's definitely a pressing concern. Speaking with one general manager last night, he's looking at trade scenarios simply because there's a belief that this year could be wasted in terms of the development. If you're not able to spend time with players in the summer, in OTAs, get them into your program and get them working, it's going to be Year Two when you see that learning curve, if not Year Three. I think the end result is that you could see more teams that want to move back, trade down and acquire picks for future years — pile up second- and third-round picks, if they could, and find guys that would be able to make a more immediate contribution next year when everything's resolved. If Carolina was a buyer, they could look to trade back. I think Denver could do the same. Straight on down, a lot of those picks in the top 10, I think those guys, like they usually do, they'd like to get out (of the pick). The money should be lower with a rookie salary cap in place. I think there's a greater chance that teams on the back end, in the 20s, could consider coming up because they're not scared off by the slotting of those contracts that we've seen in previous years. I think with the (Michael) Crabtree deal a couple years back, it really extended down to the No. 10 slot and teams were shying away from even being in the top 10. I think now, you'll see teams more willing to get up into the top 10 because they expect the financial demands to be much lower than they have in the years past.
Q: Why did you go so hard on Cam Newton's character? Is it that big of a concern for you? How does that compare to some other guys in the past in terms of the character concerns?
Nawrocki: I think it was over-sensationalized in a slow news period. I don't think the evaluation was any different than any that we've been producing the last 33 years. If you look back last year at Jimmy Clausen, a lot of the same traits were mentioned. I thought he was an egotistical, disingenuous, scripted player with a sense of entitlement. I think that was a big reason why he slipped into the second round. You look back at history and I think you'll find a lot of similar evaluations of players. JaMarcus Russell is another one. When you do the work — we study this stuff year-round, talk to all 32 teams, general managers, head coaches, area scouts, personnel directors, college coaches — anybody that has insight into these players. We're trying to figure out just what kind of kid they are, what kind of commitment are they going to have to the NFL game. With the way money has gone in recent years with how much these players are getting paid in the top 10, you know they're instant millionaires before they ever step on the field in the NFL. I think the importance of character has never been greater than it is now. And I think that's where a lot of teams miss on first-round picks. It's just not being able to properly identify the character. With all the work that we've done on (Newton's) background, with the extensive amount of research and time that went into digging and figuring out what kind of kid he is, I feel very strongly about what was written and I stand by it fully. I think it's no different than anything we've done in previous years.
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